Dr. Dobb's Journal April 2001
Software developers are often the first adopters of new technology, which means their opinions should be closely monitored. At Evans Data Corporation (EDC), we specialize in polling the opinions of various segments of the software-development community through multiclient studies. To effectively keep up with the latest trends, we ask software developers a variety of technical questions, then compile the results into a continuing research series. Issues covered by EDC include new technologies such as wireless, detailed shifts in language usage over time, and attitudes towards Linux and open source. In this article, I'll provide an overview of the current opinions of programmers about these topics.
According to our broad-based North American Developer Survey (November 2000) and International Developer Survey (November 2000), where respondents could be hosted on/or targeting any platform, a general growth pattern can be observed in Linux development in North America and abroad. Developers are increasingly writing more applications for Linux and have more confidence in using Linux for their mission-critical applications, according to data generated by EDC. Conversely, the general developer community has not been writing or planning to write a large number of open-source applications. As you might expect, studies conducted exclusively among Linux developers show that among them, the number of open-source applications has increased over the last year.
In North America, increasingly more developers are writing applications for Linux and even more expect to write them in the coming year. Since Linux is an open-source operating system, many equate it with the open-source movement, but developers who intend to write an application to run on Linux don't necessarily intend to write an open-source app. In fact, fewer developers claim to be either writing or planning to write open-source applications than writing applications for Linux.
Data from our North American Developer Survey indicates that approximately one-quarter of developers are writing apps for Linux today (see Table 1). When asked how likely they were to write apps for Linux next year, approximately 40 percent said they would "absolutely" or "probably" do so (see Table 2). EDC has been tracking Linux adoption since the Spring of 1999. At that time, 35 percent of developers thought they would "absolutely" or "probably" write apps for Linux. Since then, the numbers have taken a bit of a roller coaster ride, rising and falling every six months, to land at 40 percent in November 2000.
Another change that has been observed in North America is in the number of developers who have confidence in Linux for mission-critical applications (see Table 3). Today, more developers are claiming to have confidence in Linux compared to a year ago, even though they still remain a minority. Further, the number of developers saying that they do not have confidence in Linux for mission-critical applications is steadily decreasing.
Results from the North American Developer Survey indicate that 43 percent of developers have a positive attitude — 21.8 percent said they "absolutely" and 21.3 percent "probably" have enough confidence in using Linux for their mission-critical apps. A total of 24.4 percent said they have "no opinion" or are still unsure about Linux; and 33 percent responded negatively saying they are "probably not" or "absolutely not" confident. These numbers indicate that over the period of a year and a half, there was a 23 percent increase in developers' confidence in using Linux for mission-critical applications. At the same time, there was a 30 percent decrease in developers claiming a lack of confidence.
The same enthusiasm is not necessarily shared among IT managers. EDC's recently released Enterprise Development Management Series indicates that over 50 percent of the managers in large corporations do not feel comfortable enough with Linux for their mission-critical applications. Only about one-third of those with the money and the power to actually implement Linux for mission-critical apps feel confident enough. The number of IT managers who feel confident in Linux has been dropping since December 1999, while the number of those who do not feel confident has steadily increased.
In the International Developer Survey, results are somewhat consistent with the North American (see Table 4). Today, 30 percent of developers are writing apps for Linux, indicating that international developers are only slightly more excited about Linux than their North American counterparts. The International survey is broken down into four regions. Of those who are currently writing apps for Linux:
Results further suggest that international developers are more likely to write apps for Linux within the next year than North American developers (see Table 5). Over half of international developers said they would "absolutely" or "probably" write an app for Linux compared to less than 40 percent in North America. While 30 percent currently write Linux apps, 53 percent foresee writing them, a 75 percent increase in Linux apps within the next year.
International developers also seem to have more confidence in using Linux for mission-critical applications than their counterparts in North America (see Table 6). Over 52 percent of them said they were "absolutely" or "probably" confident, compared to 43 percent in North America. Responding negatively, 30 percent answered "probably not" and "absolutely not," slightly less than the results obtained among North American developers. Of those developers who said they were "absolutely" confident in Linux, 52.3 percent are in Europe. However, these numbers reflect a slight decrease over the past year.
Linux developers face financial and technical issues surrounding open-source software. The Linux Developer Survey (September 2000) results show that 45.5 percent of Linux developers have not released any open-source programs in the last five years (see Table 7). This number is expected to be only at one-quarter next year. Almost 40 percent of respondents do not currently write any open-source applications. A total of 16.6 percent said that "100 percent" of the apps they'll write next year for any operating system will be open source.
When asked which type of applications for Linux they believed would be the most prevalent three years from now, 46.7 percent answered "software with secure source code and some licensing restrictions." 38.6 percent said "free open-source software," and 14.7 percent said "proprietary commercial software."
Findings from the North American, International, and Linux Developer Surveys reveal that an increasing number of developers are embracing wireless applications. Today, developers are writing more applications for wireless devices than in previous years, although the majority does not currently write any (see Table 8).
About one-third of Linux developers in September 2000 said they were likely to develop Linux apps for handheld or wireless devices in the next year; however, almost half of the respondents said they were not likely to do so. The study also looked at various implementations and found that only 20 percent of developers are currently writing applications for mobile devices, however, this number reflects over a 50 percent increase since March 2000.
The North American Developer Survey results suggest that the race is on to have implementations that will run on wireless devices. In North America, 37.7 percent of developers plan to develop apps for wireless devices in the next year. However, about one half maintain that they will not. Abroad, over 40 percent of developers expect to develop applications for wireless devices in the next year. In contrast with the 50 percent who will not be developing apps for wireless devices in North America, the International Survey reveals that number to be 35 percent.
Of those developers who said they will "absolutely" write apps for wireless, 35.3 percent are in the Asia-Pacific region, 33.3 percent in Europe, 19.6 percent in Latin America, and 11.8 percent in the Middle East/Africa region. Of those developers in Asia-Pacific, 46.9 percent plan to write wireless apps. Of those in Europe, one-third of developers will be writing wireless apps. Of those surveyed in the Middle East/Africa, 39.4 percent plan to write wireless apps. In Latin America, over half of developers plan to write wireless apps next year.
The North American Developer Survey Developers have also been experiencing some change in their languages of choice. While C and C++ have lost some ground over the last few years and with Visual Basic also experiencing some fluctuation, developers are increasingly using Java. Numbers for XML use remain low but have continually increased over the last two years. The verdict is still out on Microsoft C#, which has yet to be released; however, one-third of developers already report that they are likely to try it next year.
Developers still spend most of their time with C/C++ and Visual Basic, although both of these languages have experienced slight decreases over the past few years. Java usage has increased among the general developer community, with half currently using Java at least some portion of the time. The same increase is seen with XML, but the numbers are much lower. The general developer community's enthusiasm towards XML has slowly but steadily increased over the past few years. Back in September 1999, 21.2 percent of developers were using XML. Six months later, in March 2000, that number increased to 23 percent. Java is another language experiencing increase in usage. Results from the North American can be traced back to March of 1998 when 40 percent of developers were using Java, a percentage that rose through 1998, remained steady through 1999, and rose again in 2000.
Over the past few years, C/C++ usage has shown signs of erosion in North America. In March 1998, the number of developers using C/C++ was 76 percent, falling steadily through 1999 and 2000. Also worth noticing is that in March 1998, 29 percent of developers used C/C++ 100 percent of the time, while in September 2000, this number was down to 4 percent.
The Linux Developer Survey shows that over 28 percent of respondents are using XML today compared to only 16 percent last spring. In addition, forecasts for future XML use have also increased over the last six months. In other words, when asked if they expected to use XML in the next year, 30 percent said they would in March 2000 and 36 percent in September 2000. The study found that, as of April 2000, more North American Linux developers use XML than the general developer community.
Furthermore, results from the Linux survey show that Java usage is also rising among Linux developers. Today, over 50 percent use Java, reflecting an increase since last spring. Respondents were also more enthusiastic about their expectations to use Java next year: A comparison of the two Linux surveys shows a greater than 10 percent increase in projected use over the last six months.
Developers seem interested in the new Microsoft C#. Although heavy C/C++ users might have been expected to be the most likely to try the new C#, they seem the least interested in it. Heavy Visual Basic users claimed to be more likely to try C# in the coming year. Today, 57.2 percent of the general developer community uses Visual Basic, a slight decrease compared to the March 2000 result of 62 percent. Of those developers who said they use Visual Basic over half of the time, 42.2 percent are "absolutely" or "probably" going to try C# next year. The North American respondents showed a generally positive attitude towards C# among developers. Thirty percent of developers said they are likely to try using Microsoft's new C# in the next year. The positive response was weaker among C/C++ users compared to Visual Basic users. Of those who use C/C++ more than half of the time, 29.9 percent expressed interest in trying C#. Among those who use Java more than half of the time, 23.4 percent said they are likely to try using C#.
DDJ