Just when you thought it was safe to go net surfing, who should pop up in the bit stream but Madonna, for goodness sakes. I don't know what ARPA researchers had in mind when they started building the Internet in the late '60s, but I'm here to tell you, it wasn't a 30-second sound clip from a torch-singer wannabe's newest single. But then, that's why technology is like a box of chocolates--when you throw something out there, you never quite know what people will do with it.
There's little question that 25 years ago no one could have predicted what's going on today with the "information highway." From the Internet and Microsoft's upcoming "Marvel"online service to single-user BBSs run by high-school students, millions of homes, schools, and businesses are communicating digitally like never before. Even those who should be able to predict the future didn't expect all of this. At a recent stockholder's meeting, Henry Bloch, chairman of H&R Block, the parent company of CompuServe, said that "when we acquired CompuServe in 1980, we could see that the computer age was dawning, but we didn't dream how far-reaching the changes might be." He went on to add that "what looked like a potentially nice fit became a skyrocket to the future."
The numbers are staggering. In just a few years, for instance, the number of Internet hosts has shot from about 1000 to over 2 million, servicing, say some estimates, more than 30 million users. For its part, CompuServe has rocketed to more than 2.25 million subscribers in little over a decade, growth mirrored by other online services.
All of these people aren't sitting around listening to Madonna sound bytes. Sure, entertainment is an online staple, but mainly in the form of multiplayer network games. Of course, if the entertainment industry has its druthers, you'll be downloading movies, music, and more "real soon now," and if you want a snack while surfing the net, you can already order a pizza over the Internet and have it delivered to your door.
That's not to say that joyriding on the information highway is all fun and games. From income-tax filing to work-at-home telecommuting, people are finding new ways to cope with old problems. In what has to be an enviable position, H&R Block's tax-preparation and online-service operations will shortly begin collaborating, offering direct, electronic tax filing through CompuServe. According to Henry Bloch, three million people currently use PCs to prepare tax returns, so the step to electronically filing those returns is a logical one. On the downside, the IRS is considering charging an $8.00 user fee to anyone who files electronically, even though it saves the IRS money to process electronic returns--so much for the government's push for the paperless office.
In all likelihood, many of the people filing taxes electronically will be telecommuters who work remotely using PCs and modems. According to some reports, the number of U.S. employees who telecommute, either from home or satellite offices, has grown from 7.6 million people in 1993 to 8.8 million in 1994. Paving the way in most cases are telecommunications companies. AT&T, for instance, recently declared a "telecommute day," urging employees to work from any place except their office desk.
Politicians have seen the digital light, too. Just about every political party and politician has some sort of online presence, from President Clinton (president@whitehouse.gov) on down. In addition to communicating with constituents, politicos are using the information highway to distribute press releases and position papers.
Of course, the result of this online explosion is that network infrastructure can't expand rapidly enough to support it. We're already seeing instances of multimedia, electronic mass mailings, and similar large-scale data transfers bogging down performance. While solutions range from fiber-optic communication lines to self-modifying protocols, I'd like to make a proposal that will cut down the electronic equivalent of junk mail and raise revenues to expand the infrastructure. Instead of levying electronic tax-return fees, let's charge politicians every time they jump onto the information highway. On second thought, they'd go along with it, then double our taxes to cover their costs.
Jonathan Erickson
Editor-in-chief
Copyright © 1994, Dr. Dobb's Journal